Bad luck vs. good luck statistic

[Trotter]

Well.. It's time to open a new topic with the main title of statistics.. and algorithm.

New league match today. I played away. The opponent had a slight advantage in line rating. Aggressiveness at 100%.

In the end.. the match ended in a draw. The opponent had two double yellow cards. I didn't have any.
Again, my player with 97% shooting missed the penalty.


I'll count this as 0:3 in favor of the algorithm and bad luck. I'm still waiting for my first point.

I did a quick search to find a game where you get two red cards and don't lose, but I couldn't find any..

Today's game:
https://www.soccerproject.com/spnewl_ga ... D=87232627

[Trotter]

Today I played a league game away from home with a 96% referee, team aggression at 90%. I got one double yellow card.
The opponent had 100% aggression. He got one direct red and two double yellow cards.
The score was 2-5 in my favor

In this roulette with a 96% referee and a bunch of cards, I will count today's league game as good luck.
So the current scoreboard is 1:3.

Today's game:
https://www.soccerproject.com/spnewl_ga ... D=87232644

[Trotter]

Well.. Bad luck is riding again.
Two draws with +4 and +3 better line ratings. You cannot win the title with this

https://www.soccerproject.com/spnewl_ga ... season=123

https://www.soccerproject.com/spnewl_ga ... season=123

[d van den d]

Hey mate I get it, I have also had my fair share of mr random giving me a lot of frustration. However it brings the game to a realistic level. Just like in real football there are red cards, penalties being missed and teams being better but not getting the win. If you take this away, it results in less competition with the richest of managers always winning the titles.

[Trotter]

Hey mate I get it, I have also had my fair share of mr random giving me a lot of frustration. However it brings the game to a realistic level. Just like in real football there are red cards, penalties being missed and teams being better but not getting the win. If you take this away, it results in less competition with the richest of managers always winning the titles.

Yes, something like that..

[Razvanica]

You forgot to mention that you also won with equal ratings and that you had three wins in a row with only +1 ratings, which easily compensates for the two draws you posted here

PS: You can do better with your individual orders, you are losing easy ratings over this.

[Trotter]

You forgot to mention that you also won with equal ratings and that you had three wins in a row with only +1 ratings, which easily compensates for the two draws you posted here

PS: You can do better with your individual orders, you are losing easy ratings over this.

You are right..
I had four wins with 0, +1 and +2 line ratings.
And one lost with -1.
So, those two draws are definitely compensated..

I'm glad someone is reading this whining about the algorithm

Can you give me an example of where I could have done better with individual orders? I'm still learning and trying and collecting experience..

[Trotter]

Well.. last game, bad luck (red card) and good luck (saved penalty) in the same game. Draw with -10 line ratings.

Algorithm on steroids

[remedy73]

When you play in the top of your competition, most of the matches you are better than your opponent. In those cases it's 'normal' that you win and only bad luck can change that. You won't see the 'good' lucks when it shows up.

When you play in the bottom of your competition, you never experience bad luck. All the points you win are due 'good' luck.

The point of view is a filter of your emotions...

[Trotter]

When you play in the top of your competition, most of the matches you are better than your opponent. In those cases it's 'normal' that you win and only bad luck can change that. You won't see the 'good' lucks when it shows up.

When you play in the bottom of your competition, you never experience bad luck. All the points you win are due 'good' luck.

The point of view is a filter of your emotions...

That's reasonable what you're saying, but still, at least half of the games in the A league are with approximately equal LRs and then luck decides, good or bad.
Then you get nervous, especially when you're close to the title for the first time and it just misses you by a hair..
You already have a lot of them so your point of view is more relaxed

[andrei.g]

You just got the ultimate compensation.

[Trotter]

You just got the ultimate compensation.

Exactly like that, the ultimate compensation..

[Razvanica]

First of all, congratulations, I think it is well deserved.

Regarding your question, you need to align your individual orders with the tactics you are playing. For example, on Monday you played 4-3-3 with Long Ball. This gives a bonus to your defence and attack ratings. But you put your RB on offensive individual order, which pushes a part of his rating in the midfield rating, hence losing the bonus given to the defence. From what I saw, you lose quite a few points on this, especially when playing with 5 midfielders and Passing, as today, when you put some of your midfielders on offensive.

[Trotter]

First of all, congratulations, I think it is well deserved.

Regarding your question, you need to align your individual orders with the tactics you are playing. For example, on Monday you played 4-3-3 with Long Ball. This gives a bonus to your defence and attack ratings. But you put your RB on offensive individual order, which pushes a part of his rating in the midfield rating, hence losing the bonus given to the defence. From what I saw, you lose quite a few points on this, especially when playing with 5 midfielders and Passing, as today, when you put some of your midfielders on offensive.

Thanks a lot..
Ok, if I understood you correctly, in 4-3-3 Long ball you should only place midfielders on Offensive and in 5-3-2 or 4-5-1 Passing you should only place LB/RB on Offensive?

[Razvanica]

In 4-3-3 Long Ball, you can place your midfielders on either offensive or defensive, this gives them a bonus. Of course, if your midfielders gain a lot by playing with Passing individual order, it's better to keep them on Passing, the bonus of the individual order would not compensate the loss.

in 3-5-2 or 4-5-1 Passing, yes, you can put your RB/LB on offensive to have a midfield rating bonus. But don't put your midfielders on offensive/defensive, this reduces your rating.

No you can go on and with the Cup, although I am crossing my fingers for Andrei