Yves004 wrote:If the chance is 1/12, it will always be 1/12.
If you flip a coin there's always 50% chance for either side. However if you flip it 1000 times it will be near 500 times each. But every individual throw has 50% chance to become head or tails.
It's the same with pulls: after 1200 pulls you should get about 100 from each position and 100 not good enough.
The chance being 1/12 is a assumption made by Oscarcookie in a mail above... what I am saying is that probably the chance of getting a bad youth player is bigger than that...
In the rest, no problem with the probability of an stand-alone happening - it always will be the same - but when you consider the prob on getting the same result three times in a row, your chances will decrease considerably...
Yves004 wrote:If the chance is 1/12, it will always be 1/12.
If you flip a coin there's always 50% chance for either side. However if you flip it 1000 times it will be near 500 times each. But every individual throw has 50% chance to become head or tails.
It's the same with pulls: after 1200 pulls you should get about 100 from each position and 100 not good enough.
Try to flip a coin three times in a row. Do this 1000 times, and tell me what's the chance to have three times "head" when flipping this coin. I'm 100% sure it's not 50%... (The last sentence wasn't even statistics, it was just common sense)
Yves004 wrote:If the chance is 1/12, it will always be 1/12.
If you flip a coin there's always 50% chance for either side. However if you flip it 1000 times it will be near 500 times each. But every individual throw has 50% chance to become head or tails.
It's the same with pulls: after 1200 pulls you should get about 100 from each position and 100 not good enough.
Try to flip a coin three times in a row. Do this 1000 times, and tell me what's the chance to have three times "head" when flipping this coin. I'm 100% sure it's not 50%... (The last sentence wasn't even statistics, it was just common sense)
It's less than 50% to get 3 times head in a row, but each time there's 50% chance of throwing head so in theory it's possible to get head 10 times in a row. So with a lot of bad luck you could have the same kind of youth player 3 times in a row.
Maybe it's possible to decrease the chance of pulling the same player as the previous time, but I doubt it's implemented here. So when the game-engine is going to give you a player he doesn't remember what he gave you last time and your chance to get a player with the same position is still as high as ever.
In short: the chance to get heads is always 50%, but the chance of getting 3 times head in a row is less big.
Yves004 wrote:The funny thing is: I got two RM in a row, than two CM and no two LB.
My last 2 youth players were CF's, that makes 3 in total. I also had 2 LF (also in a row), 2 LB, 2 RM, 2 CB and 1 CM. Maybe the next youth player is again a CM.
Yves004 wrote:The funny thing is: I got two RM in a row, than two CM and no two LB.
My last 2 youth players were CF's, that makes 3 in total. I also had 2 LF (also in a row), 2 LB, 2 RM, 2 CB and 1 CM. Maybe the next youth player is again a CM.
Phariseu wrote:... my last 3 youth players did not pull to main squad[/b].
For the record i have hitech center and 100% youth coordinator rating.
Another one. Last 4 youth players did not pull which means 80 days (almost 11 weeks) supporting youth center with no profit.
And i would love to accept "bad luck" as the reason for this...
Today I got a bad young player for sixth time in a row (coordinator and center always at maximun level).
In my opinion this is almost impossible, but many people here persist to say that it isn't a bug.
I don't care about statistics laws, about dismantling youth centre, or about saving my money.
I would like to have my youth center and have my youth players, because I like that in a soccer manager game, but it's not possibile to have it here.
So I decided to leave this game.
Bye to all.
Last edited by anakin66 on Thu Sep 01, 2005 6:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
I also had 2 LF (also in a row), 2 LB, 2 RM, 2 CB and 1 CM. Maybe the next youth player is again a CM.
